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Daily Market Report
15 Nov 2019

EURUSD

The EUR/USD pair has remained under selling pressure this Thursday, although unable to move far away from the 1.1000 level. The market’s mood took a turn to the worst mid-US afternoon, with US Treasury yields plummeting to fresh weekly lows and US indexes falling.  The dollar eased against most major rivals, although there was no clear catalyst behind the slide. Market players, however, are concerned about progress in US-China trade talks, and Trump impeachment’s process.

Data failed to impress, as, despite better-than-anticipated, growth figures in the Union were far from signalling the slowdown is over.  German Q3 Gross Domestic Product resulted at 0.1%, better than the flat growth predicted by analysts. The EU preliminary Q3 GDP met the market’s expectations by printing 0.2%, and in both cases, the yearly readings were slightly better than forecasted. The US just released the October Producer Price Index, which came in better than anticipated, up by 0.4% MoM and by 1.1% YoY. Initial Jobless Claims for the week ended November 8  increased to 225K far above the expected 215K.  

The EU will release October final CPI figures this Friday, seen at 0.7% YoY, while the US will publish October Retail Sales, foreseen bouncing from the previous -0.3%. The country will later release Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization for the same month.

The EUR/USD pair is trading at around 1.1020, and despite being in the green for the day, it has posted a lower low a third consecutive day. Nevertheless, the pair is also holding above the 61.8% retracement of the October rally at around 1.0990, the immediate support. In the 4-hour chart, the pair has pared its advance around a bearish 20 SMA, which maintains its downward slope below the larger ones, while technical indicators have recovered within negative levels, lacking enough momentum to confirm additional gains ahead. The 50% retracement of the mentioned rally comes at 1.1030, providing immediate resistance.

Support levels: 1.0990 1.0950 1.0920

Resistance levels: 1.1030 1.1065 1.1110 

USDJPY

The USD/JPY pair has fallen to a fresh weekly low of 108.25 in the last trading session of the day, ending the day with substantial losses just a few pips above this last. The slump was triggered by a sudden run to safety mid-US afternoon, with government debt on demand and yields edging sharply lower.

Japan published at the beginning of the day the preliminary estimate of Q3 Gross Domestic Product, which resulted below the market’s estimate. According to the official report, the economy grew at the slowest pace in a year, at an annualised rate of 0.2%. In the three months to September, the economy grew 0.1%. Early Friday, the country will release September Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization.

The  USD/JPY is at risk of extending its decline as it has broken below the 61.8% retracement of its latest daily run, at 108.50. In the 4-hour chart, the pair is battling to hold above its 200 SMA, after plummeting below the 20 and 100 SMA. Technical indicators in the mentioned chart have reached fresh weekly lows, with the RSI currently consolidating around 27, rather reflecting the lack of volume at this time of the day than suggesting downside exhaustion.

Support levels: 108.20 107.75 107.30

Resistance levels: 108.50 108.90 109.25

GBPUSD

The GBP/USD pair has recovered within range, extending its advance to 1.2888 and settling a handful of pips below this last. The movement was directly linked to the dollar’s weakness, as sterling has no reason to run. According to the official data, UK Retail Sales fell by 0.1% MoM in October and increased by 3.1% yearly basis, both missing the market’s expectations. Sales ex-fuel were down by 0.3% in the month, and up by 2.7% when compared to October 2018.

The Brexit front remained quiet ahead of UK general election, with less than one month to go, with speculative interest confident the Conservative Party will gather enough support to pass Boris Johnson’s Withdrawal Agreement. There are no macroeconomic releases scheduled in the kingdom this Friday.

The GBP/USD pair continues to hold above the 23.6% retracement of its latest bullish run, with a neutral-to-bullish stance in the short-term, as, in the 4-hour chart, it´s above its 20 and 100 SMA, which anyway remain directionless. Technical indicators have advanced within positive levels, but lost momentum, now flat, skewing the risk toward the upside without confirming it. The pair would need to break above 1.2920, the immediate resistance, to extend its gains heading into the weekend.

Support levels: 1.2860 1.2820 1.2785  

Resistance levels: 1.2920 1.2950 1.2985

AUDUSD

The Australian dollar was among the worst performers this Thursday, falling against the greenback to 0.6769, its lowest in almost a month. The slump was triggered by dismal Australian employment figures, as the economy lost 19,000 positions, against expectations of 15K new jobs. The largest decline was in full-time employment, which declined by 10.3K. Additionally, the unemployment rate ticked higher as expected to 5.3%, despite the participation rate remained steady at 66.1%. The news came after reports showing stagnated wages’ growth.  On a positive note, November Consumer Inflation Expectations rose to 4.0% from the previous 3.6%. The macroeconomic calendar in the country will remain light this Friday, as it will only include an RBA’s Debelle speech.

The AUD/USD is trading around 0.6780 ahead of the Asian opening, bearish according to intraday charts. In the 4-hour one, the pair has extended its slump below all of its moving averages, with the 20 SMA gaining downward momentum below the 100 SMA and heading to cross below the 200 SMA. Technical indicators remain in oversold territory, with the Momentum resuming its decline and the RSI at around 26, both anticipating a downward continuation on a break below 0.6770 a strong static support.

Support levels: 0.6770 0.6730 0.6700

Resistance levels: 0.6800 0.6835 0.6860 

GOLD

Gold managed to pick up the pace from its multi-month lows as the positive expectations from the trade deal turn into uncertainty. While the exact date of the meeting is still unclear, due to some market reports yesterday, the exact amount of agricultural purchases is now the biggest obstacle. As the risk momentum failed to carry the US indexes furthermore, rising safe-haven demand is now carrying Gold.

After hitting multi-month low at a.446$ this week, Gold gained around 30$ per ounce and trying to hold over 1.470$ while the USD index DXY is still holding its ground over 98 level. As long as Gold stays over 1.470$, the resistances can be followed 1.482$ (1.557$-1.459$ %23.6), 1.496$ (1.557$-1.459$ %38.2) and 1.500$ levels. Below the 1.459$ (October low) level, the supports are lined at 1.446$ (1.266$-1.557$ %38.20), 1.411$ (1.266$-1.557$ %50.0) and 1.377$ (1.266$-1.557$ %61.80).

Support Levels: 1.459$ 1.446$ 1.411$

Resistance Levels: 1.482$ 1.496$ 1.500$

 

SILVER

After a series of sharp falls, Silver managed to find the ground and trying to extend its move up as the markets are about to end the trading week. While the volatility in Silver is the lowest since August, also the white metal tested its dip level since August this week. All eyes are now at the trade deal which its meeting date is not even clear. Any rumour or development regarding the trade deal has the potential to move the prices on both ways so until the outcome is clear, we can expect more news-driven shaky trades in risk assets.

Silver is trying to test 17.00$ which is both psychological level and %50.0 of 14.29$-19.64$. Above this level, 17.60$ (%38.20 14.29$-19.65$) and 18.38$ (%23.6 14.29$-19.65$) can be targeted. On the downside, the supports can be seen at 16.70$ (double dip), 16.33$ (%61.8 14.29$-19.65$), 15.55$ (%76.40 14.29$-19.65$) and 15.00$ levels.

Support Levels: 16.70$ 16.33$ 15.55$

Resistance Levels: 17.00$ 17.60$ 18.38$

 

CRUDE WTI

As the stock level of American crude is building up and the production to fresh record levels in the US, WTI retraced heavily on Thursday. Crude stocks rose 2.22M barrels, higher than the eyed increase of 1.5 million BPD while the production in the US hit 12.8 million barrels per day, which is a new record high for oil output. On the other hand, while OPEC+ meeting is a key event for oil regarding further production cuts, escalating tensions between China and Hong Kong might be a risk event and affect the oil prices.

Again WTI failed to break 57.13$ (63.33$-51.03$ %50.00) level and retraced below 57.00$ level. Above 57.13$, 58.63$ (63.33$-51.03$ %61.80), 59.64$ (76.88$-42.40$ %50.00) and 60.00$ levels can be followed as targets up. As long as the prices stay below this level, 55.73$ (63.33$-51.03$ %38.20), 53.93$ (63.33$-51.03$ %23.60) and 51.03$ (October dip) levels can be targeted.

Support Levels: 55.73$ 53.93$ 50.00$

Resistance Levels: 57.13$ 58.63$ 59.64$

 

DOW JONES

As the positive news flow turned into uncertainty regarding the trade deal, Dow Jones is trading in a tight range with a wait and see mode ready to break its previous all-time high at 27.770. While the US 10 Year Treasury Yields are retracing, the US index DXY is still resilient above 98 level. On the last day of the trading week, the markets will follow retail sales data set from the US which can give a hint for upcoming inflation data.

Dow Jones did not manage to break over 27.770 level since last week with a couple of attempts. Over the 27.770 level, 28.400 can be followed as new record highs while below 27.400 level the supports can be seen at 27.000, 26.757 (24.680-27.400 %23.60), 26.360 (24.680-27.398 %38.20) and 26.000  (24.680-27.398 %50.00).

Support Levels: 27.400 27.000 26.757

Resistance Levels: 27.770 28.400 29.000


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* All the Moving Average support and resistance levels are dynamic by nature. Means when the price approaches the Moving averages, slight variation occurs in the forecasted Moving Average support and resistance levels. Previous few days’ intraday levels are also signicant while trading the current day as the price tend to hover around these levels for some time. Levels in red indicate strong, critical or vital.

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