Contact Us:  

Daily Market Report
27 Nov 2019

EURUSD

Little happened around the EUR/USD pair in the last 24 hours, still confined to a tight range between Fibonacci levels. Investors lacked motivation, as, despite positive comments from US and Chinese authorities, there are no material signs of progress. Data coming from these two economies failed to impress, despite mixed. Germany released the December GFK Consumer Confidence Survey, which printed at 9.7, surpassing the previous and the expected 9.6. The most relevant figure released by the US, the CB Consumer Confidence Index, fell in November to 125.5, although the October number was upwardly revised to 126.1.

Mid-US session, US President Trump said that the US is in the "final throes" on reaching a trade deal with China, although the market’s reaction to the headline was quite limited, as loads are being said but little done.

This Wednesday, the focus will be on US October Durable Goods Orders, and the second estimate of the Q3 Gross Domestic Product, this last, foreseen unchanged at 1.9%. There are some other figures scheduled for release, including Pending Home Sales and Personal Income and Spending. US growth will be critical, as a worse-than-expected outcome could revive fears of an upcoming recession.

The  EUR/USD  pair has traded within Monday’s range, heading into the Asian session with a neutral-to-bearish stance, as, in the 4-hour chart, it continues developing below all of its moving averages. The 20 SMA has accelerated its decline, now nearing a Fibonacci resistance at 1.1030, the immediate resistance. Technical indicators lack directional strength and remain well into negative territory. The pair would likely accelerate its decline on a break below the 1.0990 price zone, where it has the next Fibonacci support and this month low.

Support levels: 1.0985 1.0950 1.0915

Resistance levels: 1.1030 1.1065 1.1100

USDJPY

The USD/JPY pair is trading at around 109.10 as the American session comes to an end, having traded as high as 109.20 at the beginning of the day. Optimism about US-China gave the pair a boost during Asian trading hours, although it was unable to hold on to gains and retreated to 108.87. The late recovery was led by modest gains in Wall Street and encouraging comments from US President Trump, which anyway weren’t enough to trigger a relevant breakout.

US Treasury yields, in the meantime, remained depressed, edging marginally lower daily basis after a report indicated that US Consumer Confidence fell in November. Earlier in the day, Japan released the October Corporate Service Price Index, which surprised to the upside by rising to 2.1% from 0.5%. This Wednesday, the country won’t release macroeconomic data.

From a technical point of view, the USD/JPY pair is bullish, as, in the 4-hour chart, it further advanced above all of its moving averages, with the 20 SMA about to cross above the 100 SMA. Technical indicators remain within positive levels but lack directional strength. The pair is currently battling with the 23.6% retracement of this month rally between 107.88/109.11, while the daily low converges with the 38.2% retracement of the mentioned rally at 108.85, providing support.  

Support levels: 108.85 108.50 108.20

Resistance levels: 109.20 109.50 109.85

GBPUSD

The GBP/USD pair was unable to hold on to Monday gains, ending the day in the red at around 1.2860. The Sterling shed ground on the back of UK election polls, showing that Conservatives’ lead kept shrinking.  Different surveys offer different possible outcomes, although, on average, Tories lead has dropped from 14 points to 12 points this week.  The UK macroeconomic calendar had little to offer, publishing only October BBA Mortgage Approvals, which fell to 41.219K from 42.216K. On Wednesday, the UK won’t release macroeconomic data, although the US calendar will be busy enough, with the second estimate of Q2 GDP and October Durable Goods Orders.

The GBP/USD pair continues trading above 1.2810, the 23.6% retracement of its October rally, while sellers keep rejecting advances around the 1.2900 figure. The short-term picture is neutral, as, in the 4 hours chart, it is holding above a bullish 200 SMA but now below the 20 and 100 SMA, both are converging around 1.2875. The Momentum indicator has recovered up to its mid-line, where it lost directional strength, while the RSI stands flat around 42, indicating limited buying interest at the time being.

Support levels: 1.2810 1.2770 1.2730

Resistance levels: 1.2875 1.2920 1.2950 

AUDUSD

The Australian dollar has managed to recover some ground against its American rival, bouncing from a daily low of 0.6768 to flirt with the 0.6800 area. The advance was triggered by comments from RBA’s Governor Philip Lowe, who said that QE is not in the central bank’s agenda, adding that the toll could help, but that he doesn’t expect to get there. Finally, he stated that QE would only be considered should the cash rate reach 0.25%. The bounce was supported by softer-than-expected US data, which kept the greenback at check throughout the last trading session of the day. During the upcoming Asian session, Australia will release Q3 Construction Word Done, seen down by 1.0% after falling by 3.8% in the previous quarter.

The AUD/USD pair retains its bearish stance in the short-term, as, in the 4-hour chart, it remains capped by sellers aligned around a bearish 20 SMA, which maintains its bearish slope below the larger ones. Technical indicators, in the meantime, lack directional strength, stuck to their mid-lines. A clear break below 0.6770 should push the pair lower toward the 0.6700 figure.

Support levels: 0.6770 0.6730 0.6700

Resistance levels: 0.6800 0.6835 0.6860  

GOLD

After four days of losing streak, Gold finally managed to pick up the pace and at least erase its previous day’s losses. For now, any technical attempt for a move up is seen as a selling opportunity because of the positive expectations regarding the trade deal are still alive. On the trade deal front, the latest comment came from the US side as President Trump said that the United States is in the "final throes" on reaching a trade deal with China as reported by Reuters. Trump also added that the US wants to see democracy in Hong Kong. Although the comments supported the risk appetite, Gold managed to get away from its multi-month dips while the US indexes were trading in the positive zones too. On the other hand, the de-dollarization efforts might carry Gold higher in 2020 which is supported by the current Gold purchases by the central banks.

Over the 1.459$ level (October low), the resistances can be followed at 1.482$ (1.557$-1.459$ %23.6), 1.496$ (1.557$-1.459$ %38.2) and 1.500$ levels. On the other hand, the supports are lined at 1.446$ (1.266$-1.557$ %38.20), 1.411$ (1.266$-1.557$ %50.0) and 1.377$ (1.266$-1.557$ %61.80).  

Support Levels: 1.459$ 1.446$ 1.411$

Resistance Levels: 1.482$ 1.496$ 1.500$

 

SILVER

Although the latest developments regarding the trade deal were positive which supports the risk-on mood. Both Gold and Silver also had a positive day erasing their previous days loses. Looks like mid 16.00$ is strong support for silver since early September and the precious metal is not yet willing to lose this ground.

From the technical point of view, as long as Silver stays over 17.00$, which is both psychological and %50.0 of 14.29$-19.64$, 17.60$ (%38.20 14.29$-19.65$) and 18.38$ (%23.6 14.29$-19.65$) can be targeted. On the downside the supports can be seen at 16.70$ (double dip), 16.33$ (%61.8 14.29$-19.65$), 15.55$ (%76.40 14.29$-19.65$) and 15.00$ levels.    

Support Levels: 16.70$ 16.33$ 15.55$

Resistance Levels: 17.00$ 17.60$ 18.38$


CRUDE WTI

Depending on a Russian news agency TASS report,  The Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) unanimously support an extension to the agreement on the reduction of oil output after March 2020 and continue to discuss whether a three or a six-month extension is needed. Also, due to a source in OPEC, it is highlighted that the extension of the agreement is what they can do in a maximum scale and an increase in the reduction volume is not on the table. 

WTI failed to break its resistance at 58.63$ (63.33$-51.03$ %61.80) and retrace back to 58.00$ level at the time of the writing. The resistances are lined at 58.63$ (63.33$-51.03$ %61.80), 59.64$ (76.88$-42.40$ %50.00) and 60.00$ levels while the supports are followed at 57.13$ (63.33$-51.03$ %50.00), 55.73$ (63.33$-51.03$ %38.20) and 50.00$ levels.

Support Levels: 57.13$ 55.73$ 50.00$

Resistance Levels: 58.63$ 59.64$ 60.00$


DOW JONES

Dow Jones improved its all-time high with a small margin alongside the other US indexes with the support of positive news about the trade deal. President Trump said that the United States is in the "final throes" on reaching a trade deal with China as reported by Reuters. Trump also added that the US wants to see democracy in Hong Kong. Also, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell was on the wires earlier today and said that the central bank is unlikely to move rates anytime soon. Nevertheless, he said he sees the US economy as "glass more than half full." While the positive expectations support the risk-on mood, a typical Christmas rally mood might push the indexes higher as we come close to year-end. On the other hand, the net positions of the VIX volatility index are at new historic lows, which could lead to an imminent change in market sentiment.

Over 28.000 level, 28.400 can be followed as new record highs while below 27.770 level the supports can be seen at 27.000, 26.757 (24.680-27.400 %23.60), 26.360 (24.680-27.398 %38.20) and 26.000  (24.680-27.398 %50.00).

Support Levels: 27.400 27.000 26.757

Resistance Levels: 28.000 28.400 29.000

 

MACROECONOMIC EVENTS

Do you have any questions?

Our Customer Services team is here to help you.

Get in touch 24 hours a day, 5 days a week:

 

* All the Moving Average support and resistance levels are dynamic by nature. Means when the price approaches the Moving averages, slight variation occurs in the forecasted Moving Average support and resistance levels. Previous few days’ intraday levels are also signicant while trading the current day as the price tend to hover around these levels for some time. Levels in red indicate strong, critical or vital.

All News & Analysis provided by:

Disclaimer: NCM Investment is a subsidiary and service provider of Amwal International Investment Company. The material contained here does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) investment advice or an investment recommendation, or, an offer of or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. NCM Investment accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed. All information in this publication has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable; however, we cannot guarantee the accuracy of all information. All information and documentation associated with this report have been produced for the purposes of providing the report only.

Please remember that trading financial markets carry a high degree of risk to your capital. It is possible to lose more than your initial stake. Leveraged products may not be suitable for all investors, therefore please ensure you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.

All Rights Reserved © NCM Investment