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Daily Market Report
29 Nov 2019

EURUSD

The EUR/USD pair has extended its consolidative phase around the 1.1000 figure, as a holiday in the US exacerbated the ongoing lack of volume.  The EU released the November Economic Sentiment Indicator, which came in better-than-expected at 101.3. However, Consumer Confidence remained unchanged at -7.2. The preliminary estimate of German November inflation missed the market’s expectations, as the CPI harmonized with the EU was down by 0.8% when compared to the previous month.  The US didn’t release macroeconomic data.

 This Friday, Germany will release October Retail Sales and November unemployment data, while the EU will release the preliminary estimate of November inflation, seen up by 0.9% YoY. Core annual CPI is seen ticking up to 1.2%.  The US calendar will remain empty, with local markets set to close earlier.

The EUR/USD pair is stuck around the 1.1000 level, and it seems unlikely it will leave the range defined by Fibonacci levels, 1.0990/1.1030. The short-term picture is neutral-to bearish, as, in the 4-hour chart, technical indicators head nowhere, the Momentum just below its mid-line and the RSI around 41. The 20 SMA has also lost directional strength, but remains below the larger ones, and limiting the upside.

Support levels: 1.0990 1.0950 1.0920

Resistance levels: 1.1030 1.1065 1.1110 

USDJPY

The USD/JPY pair is finishing the day unchanged around 109.50. The Japanese yen got a modest boost from risk sentiment, with the pair down to 109.37, on news that US President Trump signed the Hong Kong human rights act, supporting the protest movement and angering Beijing. Trade talks continue, although speculative interest adopted a cautious stance.

Data coming from Japan missed the market’s expectations as Retail Trade fell by 14.4% in October, much worse than the 0.0% expected. When compared to a year earlier, Retail Trade was down by 7.1%. Large Retailers’ Sales were also sharply lower, down by 8.2% in the same month. The country will release November Tokyo inflation during the upcoming session, alongside unemployment data and October Industrial Production. Later in the day, it will add to the list November Consumer Confidence and Housing data.

The USD/JPY pair is neutral-to-bullish, holding on to its recent gains near a fresh 6-month high. In the 4-hour chart, the pair is still developing above all of its moving averages, with the 20 SMA advancing firmly above the larger ones. Technical indicators, in the meantime, remain near weekly highs, although now flat, reflecting the lack of trading interest.

Support levels: 109.30 109.05 108.80

Resistance levels: 109.60 109.90 110.10

GBPUSD

The GBP/USD pair gapped higher during Asian trading hours, trading as high as 1.2950. Pound’s strength was triggered by the YouGov MRP poll, which projects that Tories would get an advantage 68 seats in the upcoming December election. The same survey shows that Labours are on track for 211 seats. However, Conservative’s advantage has been shrinking these last couple of weeks, and if the trend continues,  it could lead to a hung Parliament.  The pair retreated ahead of London’s close, falling to 1.2898, to settle a handful of pips above the 1.2900 figure.

The UK released the November Nationwide Housing Price Index, which was up by 0.5% MoM and by 0.8% YoY, beating the market’s expectations. This Friday, the UK will release the GFK Consumer Confidence Survey, seen at -14 in November, unchanged when compared to the previous month. Later in the day, the kingdom will release October Mortgage Approvals and Money data.

Now trading a few pips above 1.2900, the GBP/USD pair retains its positive stance, set to close the day above 1.299 for the first time in over a week. In the 4 hours chart, the pair continues developing above all of its moving averages, although the 20 SMA has lost upward strength, all of them within a tight range, suggesting that the positive momentum may ease in the upcoming sessions. Technical indicators hover around their midlines, advancing just modestly into positive ground, keeping the risk skewed to the upside.

Support levels: 1.2880 1.2840 1.2810

Resistance levels: 1.2920 1.2950 1.2990

AUDUSD

The AUD/USD pair has fallen to 0.6758 at the beginning of the day, ending it just a few pips above this last. Risk aversion hit the markets during Asian trading hours, as US President Trump’s decision to sign the Hong Kong humans rights act angered Beijing.  Australian data didn’t help, as Q3 Private Capital Expenditure decreased by 0.2% more than the 0.1% decline forecasted. The country will release October HIA New Home Sales and Private Sector Credit for the same month.

The AUD/USD pair is ending the day with modest losses, technically neutral-to-bearish. In the 4-hour chart, it settled below a bearish 20 SMA, which extends its decline below the larger ones. The 100 SMA also offers a bearish slope, above the shorter one and below the 200 SMA. Technical indicators, in the meantime, remain directionless amid the lack of volatility, the Momentum just below its 100 level and the RSI at around 40.

Support levels:  0.6730 0.6700 0.6665

Resistance levels: 0.6800 0.6835 0.6860  

GOLD

Gold had a limited range trading session on Thursday trying to erase yesterday’s losses. The support came from the US front as Donald Trump signed the Hong Kong human rights act, supporting the protest movement. On the other hand, while Wall Street was closed due to Thanksgiving holiday, the USD index DXY ended the day virtually unchanged.

As long as Gold stays below the 1.459$ (October dip), the supports are lined at 1.446$ (1.266$-1.557$ %38.20), 1.411$ (1.266$-1.557$ %50.0) and 1.377$ (1.266$-1.557$ %61.80). On the other hand, the resistances can be followed at 1.482$ (1.557$-1.459$ %23.6), 1.496$ (1.557$-1.459$ %38.2) and 1.500$ levels in case of a close over 1.459$ (October low).  

Support Levels: 1.446$ 1.411$ 1.377$

Resistance Levels: 1.459$ 1.482$ 1.496


SILVER

Silver had a contrary trade on Thursday although the risk-off environment supported safe-haven assets. On the other hand, as the US markets were closed due to Thanksgiving holiday, Silver traded in a very short range.

Silver failed to capitalise the risk-off trade and stayed below 17.00$ resistance. The supports can be seen at 16.70$ (double dip), 16.33$ (%61.8 14.29$-19.65$), 15.55$ (%76.40 14.29$-19.65$) and 15.00$ levels while if Silver stays over 17.00$, which is both psychological and %50.0 of 14.29$-19.64$, 17.60$ (%38.20 14.29$-19.65$) and 18.38$ (%23.6 14.29$-19.65$) can be targeted.   

Support Levels: 16.70$ 16.33$ 15.55$

Resistance Levels: 17.00$ 17.60$ 18.38$

 

CRUDE WTI

Due to the Thanksgiving holiday in the US, WTI also had a limited trading range in a wait and see mode. The previous day, the official inventory data suggested the oil stockpiles grew 1.572 million barrels versus the forecast favouring depletion of 0.418 million barrels during the week that ended on November 22 pressured the WTI prices. 

WTI is keeping its foot down below 58.63$ (63.33$-51.03$ %61.80) although the marginal gains made on Thursday trade. The resistances are lined at 58.63$ (63.33$-51.03$ %61.80), 59.64$ (76.88$-42.40$ %50.00) and 60.00$ levels while the supports are followed at 57.13$ (63.33$-51.03$ %50.00), 55.73$ (63.33$-51.03$ %38.20) and 50.00$ levels.

Support Levels: 57.13$ 55.73$ 50.00$

Resistance Levels: 58.63$ 59.64$ 60.00$

 

DOW JONES

The US indexes were closed on Thursday due to Thanksgiving holiday after another all-time high level posted the previous day. On the trade deal front, President Donald Trump passed a bill that would require the US State Department to annually review Hong Kong’s special trade status. The same enables the Trump administration to levy sanctions against persons/institutions indulged in human rights violations. In a reaction to the bill, the Hong Kong government said the bill was “unnecessary and unwarranted” and would harm relations between the US and Hong Kong, as per the New York Times. Also, China’s Foreign Ministry crossed wires, via Reuters, while saying, “The act seriously interferes in the internal affairs of China violating international laws and basic principles of foreign relations.” As we came close to year-end, markets might be willing to increase the gains with a classic Christmas rally in the light of trade deal developments.

Over 28.000 level, 28.400 can be followed as new record highs while below 27.770 level the supports can be seen at 27.000, 26.757 (24.680-27.400 %23.60), 26.360 (24.680-27.398 %38.20) and 26.000  (24.680-27.398 %50.00).

Support Levels: 27.400 27.000 26.757

Resistance Levels: 28.400  29.000 30.000

 

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* All the Moving Average support and resistance levels are dynamic by nature. Means when the price approaches the Moving averages, slight variation occurs in the forecasted Moving Average support and resistance levels. Previous few days’ intraday levels are also signicant while trading the current day as the price tend to hover around these levels for some time. Levels in red indicate strong, critical or vital.

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